Where is the biggest “pain point†of the Belt and Road?
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In one sentence, it sums up the “One Belt and One Roadâ€: deep water, rushing, and good fish.
The brains of the “Belt and Road†are not easy to match the mouth and the body.
The “Belt and Road†has four main resources: enterprises (state-owned enterprises, private enterprises), and the government (central government, local government). If the two are in the two rounds of the car, they need to be driven synchronously; scholars, experts, and think tanks are the third major players. It is the backbone and brain of the “Belt and Road†construction, providing the necessary intellectual support and ideological guarantee for the “Belt and Roadâ€; the media is the fourth main body. It is said to be the four main resources, but it is obviously not only them, but also non-governmental organizations, non-governmental organizations, and even Chinese tourists, which are all subject resources.
However, the status quo is that the four major players are basically scattered, and the integration of related resources is seriously insufficient. For example, many governments, enterprises, and universities have also established the “Belt and Road†research institutes, but most of them are just hanging a brand. They have not conducted on-the-spot research, even without professional researchers, and it is difficult to provide them to the society. The results of the research. The fragmentation of domestic main resources will inevitably lead to the formation of synergy and the inability to connect with international resources.
To achieve the linkage effect, it is necessary to further identify the main resources and dock the main resources. A further suggestion is to establish a “One Belt, One Road†smart park to build China Zhigu. Taking the United States as an analogy, the reason why the United States is strong, its innovation is the foundation, based on many innovation platforms such as Silicon Valley. Research in the United States can be found that the connection between industrial innovation and educational resources is closely linked. Take Silicon Valley as an example. Without Stanford University, there may be no Silicon Valley, and vice versa. Industrial demand and educational resources are fully interconnected.
And we are also in the "Belt and Road", and we can focus on it. How do you gather together?
Our industrial park is relatively surplus. Almost every county in China has industrial parks and industrial parks, but quality enterprises are limited. Take some cities in China as a pilot, and first create a smart zone with “One Belt, One Roadâ€. We don't have to refer to companies or projects, we can try to introduce some research centers, incubation bases and high-end think tanks.
In the previous Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, the central government also raised the issue of the construction of high-end think tanks, indicating that the central government also realized that China's construction is inseparable from the ideological support of high-end think tanks. Moreover, this think tank is not necessarily a think tank for studying China, but also a think tank of relevant countries along the route. For example, in Inner Mongolia, a think tank of Mongolia, Russia and its Far East is introduced, so that the smart park can better exert its strength in China, Mongolia and Russia. Three parties. For example, the power of Guangxi can be the think tank of the 10 ASEAN countries. Frequent interactions can collide with the spark of the “Belt and Road†to collide with the benefits of “One Belt, One Roadâ€.
The so-called ideas have a silk road, providing a steady stream of ideas, the support of these smart parks. We must play China’s own voice and build Zhigu. Among them, the four main resources are very important, let the main resources exchange and interact in the smart park, strengthen the docking flow of production, learning and research, and hatch the talents of the “Belt and Road†that we need. At the same time, the Smart Park is also a base for innovation and fault tolerance.
Studies have shown that the probability of failure and failure of the first innovation is high, but the possibility of success in the second innovation will be high. Through the smart park, the case of the first innovation failure will be put into the warehouse. When the second innovation is made, the material can be found in it. This will help avoid the repeated trial and error path, which is urgently needed by China.
With the opportunity of the “Belt and Road†to build a global gene pool of innovation and fault tolerance, there will be many sparks coming out. As a platform link, Zhigu can unify the above resources, optimize the configuration combination, avoid repeated trial and error, and finally play the synergy of “1+1>2â€.
How to solve the problem of "the thunder is loud and the rain is small"?
In the docking between the central and the grassroots, it seems that the central government is always proposing a strategic concept, and there are some innovations at the grassroots level. Even some local talents and other resources are lacking, and it seems that there is no way to accept the idea of ​​the central government.
The core of the “Belt and Road†is interoperability. In addition to the interconnection of industries, it also includes the interconnection of central and central areas.
On March 28 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Vision and Action for Promoting the Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road." However, after the document was filed, the state of the place was “waiting†and waiting for the “Belt and Road†plan and project. The central government hopes that the localities will have grassroots innovation first and do what they do first. For a time, the central government is doing what it is looking at, what the locals are waiting for in the central government, waiting for the central government to order.
This kind of unconnected state has not broken through for a long time, so now there is a situation of “Belt and Roadâ€, “Thunder is loud, and rain is smallâ€. Significant projects and quality projects are few, what they are doing now is still doing, and the “One Belt, One Road†featured products and projects are much less.
To make a breakthrough at this point, first of all, the place must fully understand the basic connotation of the "Belt and Road" in the concept. Many places do not have a full understanding of the "Belt and Road" and think that the "Belt and Road" is just like the 4 trillion that year. It is a good red envelope to go to the place. But this is not the case. The "Belt and Road" is a good one.
The localities should take the initiative to think about what is the “Belt and Road†product, how to build a good enough product, and to create the products needed by the international market. It is necessary to fully carry out the supply-side reform of the “Belt and Road†to make the “One Belt, One Road†Chinese city and Chinese companies are full of charm.
The fundamental problem in local cities is that they have rarely studied the countries along the “Belt and Road†and what their specific needs are. After the research, you will find that the opportunity is great, so that you can be targeted. But nowadays many places are studying central policies, not countries along the route. This is where the pain lies.
What should I do if domestic local governments consume and crowd out and local protectionism is too strong?
The break is the biggest pain point of the “Belt and Roadâ€. There has been a phenomenon of "administrative division-type" development in China. Different regions are doing different things in competition. Some regions have similar homogenous developments, raising themselves and crowding others. How should this issue be coordinated in the "Belt and Road"?
It is necessary to prevent the development of "administrative divisional style" and prevent breaks between domestic provinces, districts and cities. For example, the five northwestern provinces are all doing the Silk Road on the land, but the phenomenon of joint efforts in the five northwestern provinces is rare. They are still traditionally planned and they are each landing. Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu and other provinces and autonomous regions are actively seeking dominance and superior resources, which inevitably leads to a bad situation of "lifting oneself and crowding out others." On the whole, the provinces have not only failed to form a synergy advantage, but have consumed internal competition.
Regional economic and trade cooperation has not yet formed a linkage effect, which is where the pain point lies. Administrative zoning shows that some large economic and trade cooperation within the region is not fully coordinated, coordinated, complemented and planned, and more is regional self-planning, without regional linkage.
Take the Asia-Europe Expo on September 1st in Xinjiang this year. When I was investigating in the northwest, I found that neighboring provinces, such as Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, etc., basically did not know the fair, which lost opportunities and lost linkage. To take a step back, even if you know that many provinces in the Asia-Europe Expo in Xinjiang are not right, they think that they have nothing to do with themselves. Only Xinjiang enterprises serve more than 50 countries in Europe and Asia.
This is not an individual phenomenon. The China-Arab Expo in Ningxia is now mainly done by Ningxia enterprises. The Chinese economy seems to have always had an inertia: the localization of exclusivism and the localization of conservatism.
There are special documents in the 13th Five-Year Plan that refer to “land and sea linkageâ€. For the current coastal provinces, the “Belt and Road†plan is mainly for the ocean, while the western provinces are mainly for the Eurasian continent. This is a pain point. In this regard, we can learn more from Singapore's experience.
Singapore is going to be "light and precise". Its first classic case is Suzhou Industrial Park. The second case is Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City. Both of these are done in coastal cities, but the third point is In Chongqing. Singapore itself is a maritime country. According to our inertia, it only needs to dock the Maritime Silk Road, but such a city is also developing in western China, which is the Silk Road on the land.
Our city also has this vision of Singapore. I believe that the “One Belt, One Road†regional linkage should form an inter-provincial “One Belt, One Road†policy coordination and joint project promotion mechanism, such as a large-scale economic and trade forum and open tourism cooperation.
The realization of this concept depends on the top-level design. The central government needs to have a large planning and boosting mechanism: one is regional, such as the policy coordination and linkage mechanism of the provinces related to “Haisi†and “Lusiâ€; the second is the linkage and coordination mechanism of land and sea docking. Also build. Quanzhou in Fujian and Xi'an in Shaanxi are now implementing linkages, but they are mainly spontaneous. If the central government can help promote and turn from a case to a universal phenomenon, it must be promising.
"Who is on the ground, who will cooperate with you?" This set is outdated.
"Whoever is on the ground, who will cooperate with him?" For example, Inner Mongolia connects with Mongolia and the Far East of Russia, and Yunnan connects the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor. The strategic advancement is divided by region rather than by demand, so there will be no small drawbacks.
For example, Guangxi has exerted its strength on the 10 ASEAN countries, Xinjiang has made a fuss in the five Central Asian countries, and Inner Mongolia has exerted its strength in Mongolia and the Far East. The shortcoming of this development model lies in the fact that the economic structure is highly single and highly homogeneous. The products sold in Xinjiang are among the five countries in Central Asia, and the products sold in Guangxi are owned by ten countries. This kind of geographical proximity cooperation is not a two-way complement, but a one-way output, and even a low level of repeated competition, does not meet the new trend of current economic cooperation.
There is now a new model, Ningxia is an example. Ningxia is an inland province, and no one is squatting. It has explored a new mode of cooperation - the enclave (economic) cooperation model (the enclave economy refers to two An administrative region that is independent of each other and has a gap in economic development, breaks the restrictions of the original administrative divisions, and achieves a regional economic cooperation model that complements the resources and develops the economy through cross-space administrative management and economic development. Cooperation.
Different from the geographical proximity mode, the deeper is to decide the cooperation mode according to the demand. This situation is widespread, and one of the cases has to be mentioned, that is Yiwu. Yiwu is a county-level city in China, but it develops international trade. It has a rugged mountain terrain and no resources to produce good products underground. The local population is only about 800,000, and the migrant population is nearly 1.5 million. A large part of these migrants are high-quality foreign businessmen, mainly Arabs.
This economic phenomenon is worth thinking about: Why do Arabs prefer to go to a county in Zhejiang but not to a province in the northwest? The reason is that Yiwu people keenly discovered the needs of the Arabs and brought out the profit space in the pain points. The Arabs pay attention to worship and diet. Yiwu has worked hard on halal dining and worship environment, and has created an international trade community, which has both the religious culture they need and the business culture they need. The high degree of demand is the key to the Arabs’ “going closerâ€.
The idea of ​​Yiwu is to buy the world and sell the world. It is what the other party needs to sell on its own, and it provides comprehensive procurement and group goods services. This is based on demand.
I believe that the future cooperation model needs to move closer to the demand orientation. This is the real interconnection.
And this "need" is not waiting for it, but to be keen to discover the needs of each other. In fact, in the commercial field, some of the demand is not butt-connected, but produced, or not to meet the demand, but to create demand. When a good product or a good service is provided to a customer, it will be found that this inspires a need.
When there is no Alibaba [microblogging], people do not realize the need for e-commerce platform. But when the platform is built, it will be found that people's needs are fully stimulated. So there are two types of demand orientation: docking needs and stimulating demand. Therefore, we must work hard to find the sensitivity of the pain point. Enterprises and urban participants of the “Belt and Road†must also make adjustments to their ideas, jump out of the original geographical proximity and move toward demand.
The revitalization of the Northeast must rely on the opportunity of the “Belt and Roadâ€
The linkage between the “four major blocks†and the “three support belts†is also related to the “Belt and Roadâ€. The “four major blocks†refer to the revitalization of the old industrial bases in the northeast, the rise of the central region, the development of the western region, and the opening and development of the eastern region. The original problem is that the linkage of each module is not enough. So what is the "three support belts"? The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the four free trade zone strategies mentioned after the 18th National Congress. Now that "4+3" is to achieve its interaction and linkage, it can solve China's own pain points.
There are two most active places in the “Belt and Road†wings: one is the developed European economic circle and the other is the prosperous Northeast Asian economic circle. The Northeast is an important component of the “Belt and Road†because the northeastern provinces directly connect to the Northeast Asian economy. The northeast and northeast Asia are very close to each other. Generally speaking, the Chinese believe that South Korea's trade and Northeast China must be the most. But the reality is that South Korea and Guangdong have the most trade, followed by Jiangsu, and trade with Shandong and Northeast is behind.
The northeast and South Korea are close to each other, but the economic connection is not active and the interaction is relatively poor. The reason is still the demand matching problem mentioned above. The Northeast needs to be provided by South Korea. The development ideas in the Northeast are not matched, inactive, and not connected to Korea.
Therefore, the revitalization of the Northeast must rely on the opportunity of the “Belt and Roadâ€, especially in Northeast Asia. In the industry and talent gathering, different provinces in the Northeast have different entry points. For example, Liaoning's marine economy, cultural industry, Heilongjiang, Jilin traditional agriculture, native products, manufacturing base. The Northeast is not a problem of industrialization, but an industrial upgrading.
At this point, I would like to learn from the experience of South Korea. The economy of South Korea may not be as good as the Northeast 30 years ago. However, through three stages of industrialization-localization-internationalization, South Korea has now built world-renowned brands: Samsung [microblogging], LG, Daewoo, Hyundai and so on. Therefore, to give the Northeast a new 30 years, we must have corresponding industrial support and precise international cooperation.
In addition, educational resources and human resources must also keep up. The strong development of the Korean industry is closely related to the supply of talents in universities. For example, Seoul National University, Yonsei University, Korea University, and Sungkyunkwan University have passed a steady stream of talents for Korean industry development. How to cultivate talents in the Northeast, how to make it a place for talents, and to retain talents is the key. When the China-South Korea Free Trade Zone is completed, the Northeast region should take the initiative to seize the opportunity, adjust the inertia thinking, and grasp the demand orientation with a keen mind, instead of “waiting†for the central government to help and “reliefâ€.
Be wary of inferior enterprises, not all companies that go out represent the “Belt and Road†enterprise.
Nowadays, many companies are swarming in the name of “Belt and Roadâ€. This is a matter that needs to be alert. In the event of a quality problem or a loss of control of the project, the “One Belt, One Road†brand will collapse and it will be difficult to recover. Therefore, in the key nodes of the last two years, we must do a good job in project screening and build a quality brand.
First of all, from a conceptual point of view, not all companies that go out represent the “Belt and Road†enterprises. Not all projects that go out are “One Belt, One Road†projects, and they must be identified.
The good project on the red list shows the international community that this is China's excellent “Belt and Road†enterprise, which is an incentive and promotion for it. Bad companies have to go to the black list, telling the international community to cooperate with such companies carefully, and even limit their financial support. In this way, Chinese enterprises will make some good projects become fine products through the red list and black list mechanism, and bad enterprises are restricted and constrained. The process of Chinese enterprises going global is not extensive, but it is to create and shape the international community to respect the China Belt and Road.
The “Belt and Road†project is not only about business, but also has benefits, it must win respect. It is now easy to see a situation where our company goes out of a project in a country, even if it has nothing to do with other Chinese companies, but it will have a reaction to other companies, such as upstream infrastructure and downstream services.
Europe and the United States are actually doing "One Belt and One Road", and the product is called "One Belt, One Road" along the line of cultural conquest. The difference is that our main body is mainly state-owned enterprises, while Europe and America are multinational companies. Other countries will believe that China's state-owned enterprises serve the national strategy and are unfair competition with government subsidies.
Therefore, we hope to incubate a group of multinational companies with international vision and global competitiveness through the black and white list. By then, people will not distinguish whether this is a state-owned enterprise or a private enterprise in China, but a Chinese enterprise or a multinational company. This is the impact we hope the “Belt and Road†will bring to the Chinese economy.
Specifically, how is the mechanism of the red and black list established? It is difficult to establish such a mechanism at the national level, which will make it a political act for countries along the route.
I think it should be solved in the form of professional guilds, such as business associations or trade unions, to conduct screening and qualification review of quality projects. The development momentum of foreign multinational corporations is inseparable from the self-discipline mechanism of enterprise associations (guilds), which are all economic activities.
For example, we have cultivated corporate guilds, reviewed high-quality companies on the list, and listed companies with problems, so that we can avoid the excessive politicization of the “Belt and Roadâ€.
This red and black list is to be done, but who is going to do it is crucial. This is an international trend through corporate guilds and associations. Many of our mergers and acquisitions failed because we simply brought the company, but when we deal with the internal trade unions and guilds, we find that this force is extremely powerful and sensitive to politics. Therefore, we must also cultivate Chinese corporate guilds, associations and trade unions, play their positive role, do a good job of corporate qualification review, form a benign supervision mechanism and a strict self-discipline mechanism. (The author of this article: Academician of Pangu Think Tank, Professor of the International Strategy Institute of the Central Party School, currently presides over the "One Belt, One Road and Frontier Stability" issue of the Central Party School.)