Renminbi touched the limit-stop expert for "continuous devaluation" for six consecutive trading days
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The US dollar strengthened and increased the demand for the US dollar. The short-term depreciation is expected to be strengthened. The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced on the 7th that the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 6.3342. According to the central bank's regulations, the daily inter-bank spot foreign exchange market dollar-to-renminbi trading price fluctuates within five thousandths of the central parity of the US dollar traded by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center. On the morning of the 7th, the RMB spot exchange rate once again hit the daily limit. This is the sixth consecutive trading day of the RMB exchange rate hitting the daily limit.
Since the beginning of this year, the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar has maintained an overall appreciation trend, from 6.6215 on January 4 to 6.3165 during the year on November 4. The renminbi has slightly depreciated against the US dollar in November, and the central parity of the month has fallen to November. On the 29th, it fell back to 6.3587, but since mid-December, the middle price has started to rebound again, to 6.3342.
Ding Zhijie, a professor at the School of Finance at the University of International Business and Economics, believes that the continuous hit of the down limit is related to the low daily price. The reason may be that the bank wants to buy the US dollar from the central bank at a lower price. The down limit has little to do with the depreciation, mainly because of the dollar buying. pressure.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that the impact of the RMB against the US dollar on the spot exchange rate indicates that the current demand for US dollars is very large, and the direct reason is that the US dollar band is stronger.
Recently, the European sovereign debt crisis has developed in depth. Affected by this, European and American financial institutions have to be delevered again. The 9% capital requirement requires the European banking industry to withdraw global funds, which has led to an increase in international capital volatility. The US economic recovery has rebounded slightly, but problems such as high unemployment rate, sluggish real estate market, and lack of consumer and business confidence have not improved significantly. The US dollar became the only safe haven, and the European debt crisis led to the withdrawal of funds from high-risk emerging markets. The risk assets, including emerging markets, suffered a sharp depreciation.
"It is natural to choose to sell RMB assets at this time. Goldman Sachs chose to sell Chinese banks' stocks when prices are not very good. This is a reflection of this phenomenon." Lu political commissar said.
At the same time, China's economic slowdown, coupled with the economic slowdown in overseas economies, has made international investors pessimistic about the future of China's export prospects. China's investment growth rate has also declined under the policy control, and the future investment growth rate will show a significant decline. The market's expectations for continued rapid appreciation of the renminbi have changed.
In addition, speculative demand caused by the expansion of domestic foreign exchange differences is also an important cause of market volatility. Since the end of September, the Hong Kong NDF market has already seen the expectation of RMB depreciation. The large amount of institutions selling the RMB has caused the US dollar price in the Hong Kong market to be hundreds of points higher than the mainland. At the highest point, the exchange rate between the two places reached 1,000 points. A large number of investors bought US dollars in the Mainland and sold US dollars in the Hong Kong market, causing the mainland spot market to face the US dollar from time to time.
The short-term depreciation is expected to be strengthened. The industry believes that the expectation of a depreciation of the RMB in the short term has been strengthened. The prospect of the European debt crisis is not optimistic, and the decline in China's economic growth is the main reason for the depreciation of the RMB.
The Asian Development Bank has announced that it will reduce its economic growth rate in emerging economies in East Asia from 7.5% to 7.2% in 2012. Among them, the growth rate of Mainland China is expected to be lowered from 9.1% to 8.8%, and Hong Kong is lowered from 4.7% to 4.0%. The Asian Development Bank reported that the economic downgrade was mainly due to the European debt problem and the weak US economic recovery. Next year's economic downturn or a high probability event in China will also make it difficult for the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar to continue to appreciate.
Analysts believe that the continued appreciation of the renminbi and its gradual approach to a reasonable equilibrium level have weakened the expectation of the renminbi appreciation and even turned into a short-term depreciation expectation. As of November 21, 2011, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by nearly 7% since the exchange reform was resumed on June 19, 2010. This has caused the RMB to continue to depreciate against the US dollar since October this year.
The short-term depreciation of the RMB is also expected to be reflected in the actions of commercial banks to increase their holdings of foreign exchange assets. According to data from the People's Bank of China, the balance of foreign exchange assets of the monetary authorities at the end of October was 23.296 trillion yuan, down 89.34 billion yuan from the previous month, the first decline since December 2003. Analysts believe that this indicates that the central bank sold net foreign exchange to commercial banks in October. Commercial banks are more willing to hold foreign exchange under the expectation of RMB depreciation. At the same time that the central bank’s foreign exchange assets showed a net decline in October, the bank’s monthly foreign exchange receipts and payments remained surplus, which means that commercial banks increased their holdings of foreign exchange assets more than expected.
Two-way fluctuations will be more significant Despite the expectation of RMB depreciation in the short term, authoritative experts believe that the medium and long-term appreciation of the RMB is difficult to change.
Wang Guogang, director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the Chinese economy will maintain a relatively steady and rapid growth, and the trend of RMB appreciation in the medium and long term will not change.
Zhao Qingming, an adjunct professor at the School of Finance of the University of International Business and Economics, believes that with regard to the current international and domestic economic situation and the financial market environment, the expectation of RMB depreciation is still temporary and short-lived. The general trend of RMB appreciation in the future has not changed. Of course, since the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated more than 30% since the exchange reform on July 21, 2005, the RMB has become closer to the equilibrium exchange rate. In the future, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will change the previous unilateral appreciation trend, showing a more significant trend. Two-way fluctuations.
Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi will be correspondingly weakened due to the decline in speculative capital inflows and the expected weakening of the renminbi. However, as long as China has a large trade surplus, as long as China has not established an exchange rate formation mechanism that determines the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market supply and demand, the call for the appreciation of the renminbi in the international community will not disappear.
Chen Bingcai, deputy director of the Decision-making Department of the National School of Administration, believes that whether the expectation of RMB appreciation is really reversed, and the changes in foreign exchange deposits and foreign exchange loans of commercial banks need to be observed in the future. If the increment of foreign exchange loans continues to decline, it can be judged that the expectation of appreciation has changed. At present, external funds are still relatively abundant, and China is still the preferred place for global funds.
The political commissar of Lu believes that in order to reduce the excessive consumption of foreign capital reserves and the excessive reduction of foreign exchange reserves in order to reduce international capital outflows, it is urgent to buffer the fluctuation of the renminbi against the US dollar.