Germany's shutdown of nuclear power is good for China's PV performance growth
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Wang Zhixin, the news and publicity department of Yingli Group, believes that Germany’s abandonment of nuclear power can alleviate the hidden concerns of reducing subsidies. However, this is a medium- and long-term positive, it is difficult to completely change the downturn in the PV market this year. Recently, the German government announced that it will shut down all 17 nuclear power plants in the country in 2022 and spread the global stock market. In fact, public opinion is frustrated. The judgment of photovoltaic benefits is well-founded. According to the data, the total amount of nuclear power generation in Germany in 2010 was 140 TWh (1 TW = 1000 GW). In other words, after the nuclear power shutdown in Germany, other power generation modes were needed to fill the 140 TWh power gap. More crucially, as of now, Germany is the world's largest PV installer. According to statistics, in 2010, Germany's PV facilities exceeded 17 GW, accounting for about half of all installed solar power in the world. New PV installed in 2010. The system exceeds 7 GW, accounting for about half of the world. Wang Zhixin, the news and publicity department of Yingli Group, told the “Securities Daily†that Germany’s nuclear abandonment caused the German local PV market, and the demand for products will not fluctuate too much, which can alleviate the hidden concerns of reducing subsidies. However, this is a medium- and long-term positive, and it is difficult to completely change the downturn expectations for the PV market this year. Chinese PV German food can be tempting cake according to Warburg Securities report speculated that the total nuclear power generation in Germany in 2010 was 140TWh. If it is completely replaced by photovoltaic power generation, assuming that the annual PV generation hours are 800 hours, a total of 175 GW of PV installed capacity is required, which is an average of 17.5 GW per year in 10 years. If 50% is replaced by PV, a total of 87.5 GW is required, with an average annual rate of 8.75 GW. . In addition, a few days ago, the German Renewable Energy Association said that Germany will start investing 200 billion euros (about 2 trillion yuan) in new energy from 2020 to 2020, especially in the field of sea wind power and solar energy. In the next decade, the German government plans to increase the proportion of new energy in total demand from the current 17% to nearly 50%. As a result, Germany's nuclear power generation has left a huge gap in its power market. At the same time, as the world's largest PV installation country, the attractive cake has left a broad space for imagination for PV companies and investors. "This news is undoubtedly a good thing for Chinese PV companies, because Europe has always been our main market, and Germany is the top priority." Many industry insiders interviewed by Securities Daily told reporters. The same point of view. According to Moody's statistics, an internationally renowned rating agency, by the end of 2010, PV manufacturers from China accounted for about two-thirds of the global capacity of the industry. However, from the perspective of demand, China's domestic PV demand only accounts for 3% of the world, so most of the equipment is exported to major markets such as Europe. According to the reporter's understanding, this change has taken place in the market, and many Chinese PV companies have taken measures to respond positively. On May 29th, Yingli Group held a general meeting to attack the European market, the United States and emerging markets, and the Chinese market. Yingli’s head, Miao Liansheng, said, “The photovoltaic industry has ushered in a period of reshuffle, facing the future. The market structure changes, the group needs to take the initiative to respond to market changes." Subsidies cut down worry is difficult to reduce in the near future Just as financial subsidies have created the prosperity of China's seven strategic emerging industries, the European PV market is also inseparable from the strong support of subsidy policies. In July 2010, the German Federal Senate passed the “Renewable Energy Law Photovoltaic Power Generation Subsidy Amendmentâ€. Since July 1, 2010, the subsidy for rooftop photovoltaic power generation systems built in Germany has been reduced by 13%. The subsidy amount was reduced by 8% in the original non-power station land and converted to power station land, and the subsidy amount in other regions decreased by 12%. From October 1, 2010, the amount of subsidies will be reduced by 3% on the basis of July 1. The reduction of German subsidies immediately triggered a small shock in the photovoltaic industry. According to media reports, at that time, Germany not only appeared in the phenomenon of rushing to install, but also drastically reduced investment in the photovoltaic industry. The more worrying issue also happened in more than half a year. Since March this year, with the policy adjustments of major demanding countries and the increasing sales pressure, the price of photovoltaic cells has been declining. The latest global PV industry analysis report by international research institute IMSResearch shows that the global PV module shipments declined in the first quarter. Nearly 10%, this is the first decline since the beginning of 2009. Among them, the price of crystalline silicon components from Chinese second-tier suppliers fell the fastest. Wang Zhixin, the news and publicity department of Yingli Group, told the “Securities Daily†reporter that “in the short term, the subsidy reduction will attract the photovoltaic industry to oscillate, which will trigger a new round of market competition, which will lead to the adjustment of industrial structure. But in the medium and long term, The comprehensive advantages of solar energy will be fully demonstrated, especially under the circumstance of abandoning nuclear power, solar energy will become the darling of emerging industries.†Wang Zhixin said that the PV market may face adjustment in the next 18 months, but considering the stable growth expectations of mature markets Factors such as the rise of emerging markets, coupled with the abandonment of nuclear power by Switzerland and Germany, the global PV market still contains many business opportunities.