GWEC forecasts global wind power market for 2011-2015

Every spring, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) publishes a global wind market outlook for the next five years. Although it is usually a thankless task to make market predictions, it is very difficult to accurately forecast the wind power market prospects on the premise that the current global economy is not yet stable, but GWEC still released 2011-2015 as scheduled. The global wind power market outlook for the year.

In this issue, we will fully interpret the report for you to see how the global wind power market will develop in the current extremely complex economic environment.

The momentum of wind power development in the next five years is still strong According to the GWEC report, the global wind power market will grow from the current 194 GW to 449 GW in 2015. In 2015, the global installed capacity of new wind power will reach 60.5 GW, which is a significant increase from 35.8 GW in 2010.

From the development of the wind power market in the past five years, the development of the wind power market is not as optimistic as GWEC originally predicted. Taking 2010 as an example, GWEC predicts that the installed capacity of the global wind power market can reach 40 GW, but in fact it is only 35.8 GW. The main reason for this result was that the performance of the US wind power market was insufficient in 2010, and the installed capacity of new wind power was only half of that in 2009.

In forecasting the growth rate of the wind power market, I do not know whether it has learned the lessons of 2010. GWEC's forecast data is relatively conservative. GWEC forecasts that the average annual growth rate of installed capacity of wind power in the next five years will be 18.2%. This data has significantly decreased compared with the forecast in the GWEC 2010 report. The main consideration for making conservative forecasts is the uncertainty in the North American wind power market.

The report points out that Asia, North America and Europe will become the main regions where wind power develops rapidly in the next five years. The growth rate of wind power in Asia will be far ahead of the rest of the world, and China will continue to be the main driver of wind power growth.

Asian Wind Power Scale 2013 Super Europe From a holistic point of view, GWEC forecasts that the installed capacity of Asian wind power market in 2015 will reach 26 GW, which was 19 GW in 2010. According to this statistic, the new wind power installed capacity in Asian wind power market will reach 116 GW in the next five years, which is higher than any historical period. The installed capacity of wind power in Asia will also surpass Europe in 2013, ranking first in the world. In 2015, the scale of wind power in Asia can reach 174.6 GW.

It is worth mentioning that wind power has been developing at a speed exceeding the expectations of people in the industry in China, and 2010 is no exception. According to GWEC's data, China's newly installed wind power capacity reached 16.5 GW in 2010, which accounted for almost half of the global new wind turbine capacity in 2010. Wind power will continue to maintain strong growth in China in the next five years. GWEC forecasts that China's newly installed capacity for wind power will reach 20 GW by 2015. Under the background of rapid economic growth and increasing power demand, the rapid development of wind power in China is an inevitable result. The rapid rise of the wind power industry can play a significant role in China's response to various challenges such as the diversification of energy structure, environmental protection, and energy conservation and emission reduction challenges. Therefore, GWEC believes that China will remain the new force in the global wind power market in the next five years.

In addition to China, India's wind power market outlook is also favored by GWEC. The report believes that India's wind power market will maintain an annual growth rate of 2 GW in the next five years. The wind power industry in Japan, South Korea and even the Philippines will also have different degrees of growth.

The North American market still needs time to recover North America. GWEC believes that North American wind power market will not improve much in the next two years. The main reason for making this kind of prediction is that the United States and Canada have uncertainties in government legislation. Although the development of wind power in certain regions of these two countries has remarkable points, the overall situation remains unclear. Specifically, GWEC predicts that the new wind power installed capacity in the North American wind power market will recover to 8 GW in 2011, up from 5.8 GW in 2010. By 2014, the North American wind power market will be able to resume its 2009 level with an installed capacity of 11 GW of new wind power and 12 GW in 2015. The main growth will still come from the United States and Canada. The scale of wind power generation in these two countries will reach 94.2 GW in the next five years.

The United States has been an important force in promoting the development of the global wind power market in the past. However, due to the poor performance of the US wind power market in the past two years, this force is gradually weakening. However, according to the latest statistics, the United States added 5,600 megawatts of installed capacity for wind power at the beginning of 2011, which is higher than the level of the same period of last year. Therefore, there are also people in the industry who believe that U.S. wind power will "rejuvenate." Although this forecast does not have much data support, at least from the perspective of the situation at the beginning of this year, the US wind power market is indeed recovering. Earlier it was forecasted that the US wind power market will return to its peak in 2009 in 2015, and some people think that this goal can be achieved earlier.

The European market remained steady and there was a rise in Europe until 2013, which will still be the top spot in the growth rate of wind power installed capacity. GWEC predicts that by 2015, the scale of European wind power will reach 146.1 GW. In 2015, the new installed capacity of wind power was 14 GW, and the total installed capacity of new wind power in the next five years could reach 60 GW. The rapid development of offshore wind power will become a bright spot for the development of the European wind power market in the next five years. By 2015, the newly installed offshore wind power capacity will reach 3.1 GW, accounting for 21% of the total installed capacity of wind power. GWEC believes that this momentum will be more apparent in the coming years.

In the past, the European wind market grew mainly from Germany and Spain. However, in the next five years, many countries including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Portugal will all become the forces that cannot be ignored in the development of the European wind power market. The EU's encouragement policy undoubtedly promoted the development of wind power in EU member states. Even non-EU member states, such as Turkey, have plans to develop wind power. GWEC believes that these countries will jointly promote the continued prosperity and development of the European wind power market.

Latin America is expected to achieve a breakthrough in Africa's Middle East is still weak In addition to these three major growth areas, Latin American countries may also contribute to the development of global wind power in the next five years. Thanks to the support of government policies, the development prospects of wind power in Brazil, Mexico and Chile are all favored by GWEC. The report predicts that these three countries will have an installed capacity of 19 MW of new wind power in the next five years. However, GWEC also pointed out that such development is far from enough compared to the abundant wind resources in these countries.

The outlook for wind power in Africa and the Middle East is still not optimistic. GWEC believes that although there will be some small-scale wind power development in these areas in the future, it will not have much impact on the global wind power market. It is estimated that the installed capacity of new wind power in these two regions will reach 2 GW by 2015, with a total installed capacity of 7.5 GW. However, GWEC said it does not rule out the possibility of a "dark horse." The wind-rich countries of Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and South Africa may make people shine in the future.

Difficulties in Development Exceeding Challenges In addition to the outlook, the GWEC report also analyzes the major issues facing wind power development in the next five years. The report believes that the lack of policy support and the uncertainty of the existing support policies are the main factors that hinder the development of the wind power market. The poor performance of the wind power market in 2010 may have an impact on wind power development in the past two years. However, GWEC believes that there are still many opportunities for development in the wind power market, far more than people currently see.

Although the impact of the economic crisis has not completely dispersed, the wind power market does not seem to be affected by economic factors. The subprime mortgage crisis from 2008 to 2009 brought a severe blow to the global economy. However, the wind power market suffered only some impact at the end of 2008. Orders for wind turbines have declined, but by early 2009 they have returned to normal.

Therefore, GWEC believes that there are still enough reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the development of the wind power market in the next five years. According to the statistics of Bloomberg's New Energy Finance, investment in wind power in 2010 increased by 31% compared with 2009, reaching a record of US$96 billion, indicating that the wind power investment market is still hot. GWEC said that these investments will be converted into new installed capacity in the next few years.