Prices at the bottom of the price are now showing a turbulent uptrend in steel prices

Since the beginning of August, the domestic steel market price has fallen from an upward trend. After a sustained downward adjustment in the past three months, the bottom of the price pattern has appeared, and there is limited space for further downsides. In addition, there is still room for further enlargement in demand for several months of the year. It is expected that the overall price trend of the domestic steel market will gradually stabilize and oscillate upward. However, due to the excessive production output, the pressure of new resources is increasing, and the export situation is still not very clear. The current uncertainties in the steel market operation still exist. Affected by these factors, the strength of the rebound in the market outlook still has a large variable.

The output growth is basically stable According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, the country’s crude steel production was 51.632 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.1% over the same period of last year. This is the first time that China’s crude steel production has dropped since the beginning of the year. In the same month, the national steel output was 69.683 million tons, an increase of 11.5% over the same period of last year. From the Nissan level, the average daily output of crude steel in August was 1.666 million tons, which was basically the same as that of the previous month; and the steel was 2.248 million tons, an increase of 3.0% from the previous month.

In terms of sub-species, the output of steel bars, wire rods, hot-rolled steel sheets, hot-rolled narrow steel strips, welded steel pipes, etc. saw a significant drop in production, which was lower or lower than the same period of last year. Special thick plates, thick steel plates, hot rolling And cold-rolled thin strip, cold-rolled narrow strip, seamless steel pipe and other varieties, continue to maintain rapid growth, year-on-year increase of more than 20%.

From January to August, the country’s crude steel production amounted to 425.574 million tons, an increase of 15.3% over the same period of last year, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the previous seven months; the country’s steel output was 533.581 million tons, an increase of 21.4% over the same period of last year, an increase over the previous 7 It fell 1.7 percentage points in the month. According to the current output level, it is estimated that the annual crude steel output will exceed 630 million tons, and the steel output will reach 800 million tons.

Imports and exports continued to fall, and imports fell slightly. According to customs statistics, in August, the import of steel was 1.35 million tons, which was a decrease of 3.6% from the previous month and a decrease of 15.4% from the same period of last year. China's steel imports exceeded 1.6 million tons in March this year, reaching a stage peak, followed by a sustained fall in both the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter ratios. From January to August this year, a total of 11.18 million tons of steel were imported domestically, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year.

Exports dropped sharply. In August, China’s steel exports reached 2.8 million tons, the lowest monthly export since the beginning of the year, a drop of 38.5% from the previous month and an increase of 34.6% from the same period of last year. From January to August, 30.93 million tons of steel were exported, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times.